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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Look out the window
- Quick, look out the window. It's raining. No, the sun's out. No, it's cloudy. Wait a second, it is changing again, but I can't tell what it is going to do.Kinds like the stock market. Up one day, down the next, then goes sideways. That stock I bought is not acting right. Maybe I should sell it, but I'll wait another day. My broker (the weatherman) says it will go back up.At the begin...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Financial crime
- Congress recently passed another new law that is supposed to outlaw financial crime. Corporate officers will be sent to jail for "cooking the books" as it is called. Among other things it is taking the stockholders money and paying themselves huge bonuses for nonperformance. These guys are even worse than mutual fund managers who do the same thing ? get paid big salaries yet continue to ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Voodoo training for the stock market
- If you go to Haiti or other places in the Caribbean you may run into the Voodoo tradition of magic. There are long and mostly noisy rituals with the medicine man spouting words that bring great power and conjure up whatever it is the supplicant desires. Great amounts of smoke and mirrors.Does this remind you of anything?I hear the mesmerizing words of my broker telling me about a won...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Selling
- The stock market has been going up for more than 7 months and many investors who held on through the big crash of 2000 are seeing their portfolios get back some of what had disappeared. Is now the time to sell those equities that are 'even' with what you paid for them? No.The reason I say "no" is because that is a guess and to be a successful investor you don't want to be guessing...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Which way the market
- I am hearing predictions by brokers, financial planners, talk show hosts and the talking heads on TV that the market is going back to its old highs - DOW 11,700 and NASDAQ 5000 here we come.It seems to me that in 2000 I heard these same people saying there was no top to the market and were looking into their crystal balls for DOW 30,000 or some other fantastic number. Suddenly the market tu...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - The big bad bear
- The big bad bear is stirring again. So far he has stretched, yawned and peaked out of his cave. After his almost year-long nap he is hungry. A nice big steak would hit the spot.That steak comes from cattle and not too far from his den there is a fat complacent bull munching in the pasture. He has his tail towards the bear and Mr. Bear remembers that 3 years ago he walked up to another bull ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Performance funds
- Mutual funds are doing more and more to discourage investors from leaving them and taking their money to a better performing fund. What does better performing mean? It has nothing to do with who the manager is, what the expense ratio is or how well they performed over the past 5 or 10 years.Remember the old one, "What have you done for me lately?" That is the ONLY thing that count...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - What are you waiting for?
- Do you own any mutual funds? In an IRA or 401K or wherever. Privately or at work.Have you called your fund manager to find out what is going on with your fund? Are they under investigation for late trading, improper pricing, deviation from length of sales defined in the prospectus or stale trading? Are my questions too hard?Please don't be confused. It seems that most fund owners hav...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Discipline
- One of the great "secrets" of successful people is discipline and it doesn't make any difference whether it is manufacturing, processing, servicing or investing in the stock market.Before you can have that discipline you must have a successful plan and stick with it. If the method you use does not work or results in smaller profits it should be abandoned and a better one found. Fo...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Stuff
- I continually hear from economists, talking heads, other market letter writers, analysts and assorted "experts" that I need to know all kinds of "stuff" about the stocks and mutual funds I am going to buy and I should keep up with them on a regular basis.What is this important "stuff"?Let's see. Oh, I know. Price to Earning ratio, P/E. That's always a bi...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Protectionism
- First let's see what protectionism is. According to Mr. Webster it is the advocacy, system, or theory of protecting domestic producers by impeding or limiting, as by tariffs or quotas, the importation of foreign goods and services.That sounds pretty good. It is something that will protect the jobs of our workers from goods that can be produced elsewhere and undercut the prices of our local ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Expense ratios
- Mutual funds and brokers are always preaching not to buy any fund with a high expense ratio. That is the annual costs of the fund to pay for trading of stocks within their portfolio, salaries, rent, telephone, analysts, etc. Most of them tell you not to buy one that exceeds 1.5%. There is also another expense added by some mutual funds called a 12b1 (usually from ¼% to 1%) that ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Trading systems
- To become a successful trader you must have some kind of method or system to follow that will keep you on track. You may be buying and selling on tips, the weather or phases of the moon (there is a system like that).The two basic methods are based either on fundamental or technicals. In stock the fundamentals take into account sales, gross profit margins, net profit margins, industry growth...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Paddle your canoe
- At some time in your life you have been on a river in a canoe and hopefully you had a paddle. You know about being up the creek without one.You quickly learned that paddling up stream is much harder than paddling down stream. The lesson of going with the flow can be applied to many aspects of life and especially to the stock market. In the creek it is easy to know which way the current is f...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Complacency indicator
- If you haven't heard of the technical indicator with the stock market symbol VIX it is now time to pay some attention to it. When the number is running low, as it is now, around 15 to 18 it means everyone is happy and thinks the stock market is going to continue up or at least continue on its current path and there is no need to sell anything. This is a measure of complacency. When the number goes...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Perfect storm
- Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was stricken when I saw the movie "PERFECT STORM". I know these are things you want to avoid at all costs. Even little storms can play havoc with your life style on a boat.From a world view it looks like we are headed into a perfect storm of world macroeconomics. That means every one in the world is going to be impacted economically by ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Inertia syndrome
- When it comes to buying a stock or mutual fund most people act pretty quickly. There are some who will take the time to get a report from Morningstar (it is worthless) or get reports from their broker (also worthless) or even do a search on the Internet (if you know what you are doing). When your broker says "buy" you buy and when a friend gives you a "tip" you buy.Any f...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Valuation
- Every day I hear from the "experts" on CNBC-TV and the radio gurus that the way to buy stocks is find value. One man's Rembrandt is another man's connect-the-dots and fill in the spaces. Valuation is like beauty. It is in the mind of the beholder.If valuation is the key to buying stocks then there should be some kind of a formula to determine what is undervalued and over-valued. I...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Low expense ratio
- One of the big advertising kicks today from mutual funds is to tell how low their expense ratio is and that you will make a great deal more money if you buy and hold with them. Partly true, but that is not the whole story.What is the expense ratio? It is all their overhead including but not limited to all the managers and other employees salaries, rent, computers, utilities, travel (the fun...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Nasdaq 800?
- In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3000 I wrote in this column that the NASDAQ Index would fall to 1500 and I got lots of heat for saying it. Microsoft had fallen from $129 to $60 per share. You know where they are today.The talking heads on CNBC-TV and many of the radio stock experts are convinced we are headed back up as soon as this small "correction" is over ? ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Stock analysis
- I receive emails from Morningstar. This company provides statistics and analysis of just about every publicly traded stock company you can think of as well as voluminous information on mutual funds around the world.You can ask them about a company's sales, management, marketing plan, their performance within a corporate sector, ratios of all kinds, etc, etc. The have it. After you have glea...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Fake money
- Reach in your pocket and take out that big roll of bills. Depending on how many of them you have you feel pretty good. BUT did you know they are not worth the paper they are printed on? Huh? Let me explain.Yes, those bills are legal tender because those guys in Washington passed a law stating they must be accepted for payment. They are Federal Reserve Notes and it states right on the bill, ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Fools gold
- The stock market has been in an up trend for more than a year. Almost everyone is feeling good and many believe we are back in the old bull market with the previous high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average just about to be broken.This could be the case, but what if what we are seeing is all glitter and only has sparkle with no value whatsoever. Any one who tells you he knows is either a lia...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - My stock - right or wrong
- We all know the expression, "My country, right or wrong", but have you ever thought about the stocks or mutual fund you own and said to yourself, "My stock - right or wrong" and held on to your position even as you saw your hard-earned money disappearing?This is the Buy N Hold strategy and, in case you haven't noticed, lost from 40% to 60% and more of investors' money fr...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Outsourcing
- It's about time someone spoke the truth concerning outsourcing. The politicians sure won't. They prefer to do finger-pointing saying it is "his fault". It is those greedy manufacturers who want to make bigger profits by having cheap labor in Asia perform your task for less money.Did anyone ever tell you that if it wasn't for outsourcing you might not have a job? Did anyone ever te...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Its snowing
- The Winter Games for the Olympics are coming up soon and many will want to go to see the giant slalom event. That's the one where the skier starts off from the little hut at the top of a long slope, picks up speed and makes his way around poles on the way down. Each turn about a pole is precarious and some fall on the way down and are wiped out.Kinda reminds me of the current stock market. ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Inertia
- One of the basic laws of physics is that a body in motion will remain in motion unless disturbed by another force. What has this to do with the stock market?For the last 2 years the long-term trend of the market has been down with a few momentary deviations. When a baseball player hits a ball it comes off his bat at full speed and as it makes its arc through the air it slows down and is buf...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - How to be a winner
- Everyone who invests in the stock market wants to be a winner. Each person's definition of a winner will be somewhat different, but there is hardly one who isn't looking for that stock that will double in price within one year.Can it be done? Yes, but when you look at the odds you may want to find a better or maybe slower and safer way. The chance of finding that mother load is 1 in 200, ab...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Low tide
- When you stand on the ocean shore and watch the waves breaking you might become aware that the tide is coming in or going out. It is a slow process to watch the water retreat and when it finally gets to its lowest point it is almost impossible to tell if it has stopped or will retreat further. Plenty of wave action, but going nowhere.This reminds me of our current stock market. It still loo...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Complacency
- During the month of January the Dow Jones Industrial Average, usually referred to as the DOW, had an almost 1,000 point range, most of it down and the average investor has yawned and said 'so what, this has happened many times before'.Is there any reason to worry now?The terrible event of September 11 shocked investors who sold heavily and then watched the market climb back to where ...
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